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Good summary.

One potential growth area I see for OTVs is literal: with large fairing vehicles like New Glenn and Starship coming, larger satellites for MEO and GEO may get deployment tugs too.

And a risk is not doing whatever it was that Spaceflight inc. did to anger SpaceX and got itself banned. (One rumor I saw thought speculated their OVT (or a cubesat customer on it) leaked fuel inside the SpaceX fairing or during processing)

Generally I like this industry; a lot of experimentation and innovation with different fuels, and I think it has more potential then small launch. But I do wonder if it will become a separate industry, remain an offshoot of the launch aggregators, or just kickstage derivatives from the launch providers

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I wonder how you measure success? Considering an OTV is meant to take it's payloads to a different orbit other than the initial launch orbit I'm not sure to what success D-Orbit it has managed to do this for it's customers. Looking at their TLE they just separated the payloads into the same launch orbit...

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