A look at European OTVs

An analysis of Orbital Transfer Vehicles being developed and operated in Europe

Issue 44. Subscribers 1,430.

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A look at European OTVs

Credit: D-Orbit

Late last month, no less than four orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs) were launched aboard a single SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare mission. This seemed to be a clear indication that there is a market for these vehicles and that operators are rushing to get their respective vehicles into service. As a result, I thought it would be an interesting moment to see the current status of the OTVs being developed and operated in Europe. 

There is no shortage of these vehicles being developed in Europe with no fewer than 13 OTVs in various stages of development from companies across the continent. To bring some sort of order to the whole thing, I have split the various vehicles into three categories. The first category includes OTV vehicles that are being developed as an element of a larger launch system. Examples of this type of OTV are the Skyrora Space Tug and the RFA Redshift, although the two vehicles do take slightly different approaches. The Skyrora Space Tug is an optional add-on with the company also developing a standard upper stage. The RFA Redshift will serve as the RFA ONE’s upper stage for all missions. The second category of OTV vehicles are those being developed and operated by space logistics companies and startups like D-Orbit, Exotrail, and UARX. And finally, the third category are vehicles being developed by large entities like ESA (alongside ArianeGroup) and Thales Alenia Space.

The above is not an exhaustive look at the market. There are likely one or two more that I have missed. However, despite the large array of companies working on OTVs, there is currently only one European vehicle operational today, that being the D-Orbit ION. Another five are expected to perform maiden flights in 2023, three in 2024, one in 2025, two in 2026, and one in 2027. 

Although most fill the traditional OTV role of last-mile satellite delivery with some adding additional capabilities, the ClearSpace and Thales Alenia Space vehicles are both unique in that they are specialty vehicles created to fill a specific role. These two vehicles are being built to perform orbital debris removal and satellite mission extension respectively. While I think the first is admirable, I think the second is likely to be a more lucrative market. I do think there will be business for debris removal. However, I think that most companies are going to find it more cost-effective to integrate deorbiting systems into satellite designs rather than purchase external deorbiting services. That brings us to mission extension services.

Large telecommunications and navigation satellites are a vital part of everyday life. These satellites are hugely expensive to produce and launch and can have a lifespan of between 10 and 20 years. A mission extension OTV could allow operators to potentially double the lifespan of a satellite at a fraction of the cost of building and launching a new satellite. New satellites can also be built with servicing and upgrade in mind allowing new technology to be integrated into its systems further extending a satellite’s usefulness. This service, as a result, seems like a no-brainer to me. It is therefore surprising that there aren’t any startups in Europe focused on this specific mission role. A few have included it as an added service but only Thales Alenia Space is working on a dedicated vehicle to rival the likes of the Northrop Grumman Mission Extension Vehicle, which is already proving its value in orbit. I think this is potentially an underserved gap in the market.

So-called last-mile satellite delivery is the most common offering for European OTV operators. This service allows customers to enjoy the cost saving of launching aboard a large rideshare mission while still benefiting from the kinds of dedicated delivery options that would otherwise not be available to them. This in turn can extend the life of a vehicle that may otherwise have been required to spend fuel on reaching a target orbit. It is, without doubt, a valuable service that has made it even easier for new cubesat and smaller-satellite-based businesses to grow and thrive. 

A final interesting service offered by OTV operators is orbital repositioning. There are definitely use cases for this service, if there weren’t it would be something these operators are offering. I do, however, think this is going to be a niche service. If a company can include it as part of a last-mile delivery mission that could also include a debris removal mission during a decommissioning phase it may make sense. However, I don’t think this is something operators will or are targeting as a primary offering.

A D-Orbit case study

D-Orbit was founded in 2011 and is currently the only operational European OTC provider. The company launched its first mission "Origin" aboard a Vega rocket on September 2020 with 12 satellites and one hosted payload. The mission was a complete success as has every other mission that has proceeded it. 

In total, D-Orbit has launched eight missions deploying 60 satellites and hosting 18 other payloads. In 2022, the company launched three missions. In 2023 thus far, it has already completed two missions, both of which were unique. The first on 3 January included not one but two ION OTVs on the same flight. The second was launched on 31 January and was the company’s first into a mid-inclination orbit. This second mission was also interesting as it was a rideshare participant aboard a SpaceX Starlink mission instead of a Transporter mission. It will be interesting to see if more OTV operators hitch a ride aboard Starlink missions in the future.

Credit: D-Orbit

Apart from its maiden flight, all D-Orbit missions have been launched aboard SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets, which is unlikely to surprise anyone. The company has, however, agreed to launch services agreements with Isar Aerospace and HyImpulse to launch its OTV on European launch vehicles. Both companies will, however, first have to begin launching commercial missions before they’re able to host D-Orbit OTV flights.

Needless to say, the company has been a pioneer in the industry. While many companies featured in this analysis have many years of development ahead, D-Orbit is already in its third year of operational flight. To say that they are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest would be a massive understatement. Another important factor in the company’s success is its ability to attract customers from outside of Europe with a global reach that includes customers from the United States, Thailand, UAE, Israel, Kuwait, Chile, and New Zealand. And that’s of course not to mention the various European customers the company has attracted. It really is an astonishing European space success story that I don’t think gets talked about enough.

Apart from going back in time and starting before anyone else, is there anything up-and-coming OTV operators can learn from D-Orbit? And is the company proof that there is a market or is it already saturated?

SpaceX Transporter service has been a catalyst 

It is interesting to note that D-Orbit was not the only OTV company to launch aboard the 3 January 2023 Falcon 9 mission. The SpaceX Transporter 6 mission included flights of the Epic Aerospace CHIMERA, Launcher Orbiter, and the Momentus Space Vigoride. I don’t think this is a coincidence. In fact, I think it’s a key part of the equation.

The SpaceX Transporter missions offer flights for 50 kg payloads at a cost of $275k to SSO at an astonishing per kg price of $5,500. OTV operators cut that minimum payload mass down to fractions allowing companies looking to get cubesats into orbit to purchase flights at a cost that doesn’t represent several multiples of the cost of the satellite itself. This opens the door to potentially hundreds of customers that just ten or even five years ago would have had no way to reach orbit on modest budgets. This in turn sparks the creation of even more customers that only exist because of this launch service.

This, however, does put a natural limiter on the market. If the only way the equation makes sense is to launch aboard SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare missions then the number of rideshare missions becomes a determining factor for the number of OTV companies that can operate at once. So, is SpaceX unique? Well, for the most part in the short term, I would say yes. In terms of launch capacity and launch cost, there just is not much out there that can compete, India’s PSLV likely being the rare exception. However, the PSLV is generally not launched more than three or four times a year which doesn’t add much additional capacity. Additionally, as far as I know, no OTV has yet launched aboard a PSLV flight.

This is all to say that SpaceX is just about an OTV operator’s only ticket into space in 2023. That’s a problem. No fewer than five future European OTV operators are looking to debut vehicles in 2023. Two are linked to launch vehicles and, as a result, don’t figure into the equation. That leaves three additional operators in Europe alone. With three SpaceX Transporter missions scheduled for 2023, there will likely be a premium on OTV spots aboard these flights. And these European companies will be competing with more established operators in the US.

However, if companies can make it through 2023 capacity is likely to increase. Ariane 6 and Vega C will both be offering rideshare services. This is unlikely to come at a comparable cost to the SpaceX rideshare missions, but launch capacity will be at a premium and cost may not be the determining factor. There are also several European launch startups that are scheduled to debut vehicles in 2023 but most if not all will likely be forced to push those dates into 2024. The US has Vulcan and maybe even Starship and New Glenn coming into operation along with a slew of small launch startups. So, in the medium to long term, launch capacity is likely not going to be a limiting factor for the number of OTV operators that can survive at once.

The customers

According to Nanosats.eu, based on projections that utilize announced constellations as a basis, approximately 2,080 nanosatellites will be launched over the next six years, which equates to around 346 satellites a year. It would be crazy to assume that OTVs will become the gold standard for launching small satellites over the next six years. Small launch vehicles, hosted dispensers, and direct medium to heavy launch vehicle rideshare missions will all eat into that slice of the market. 

This, however, doesn’t take into account the exceptional growth of the CubeSat sector and the affordable rideshare options which have completely changed the barrier to entry for new companies. These considerations do, however, only open so much additional space for more OTV operators to survive and thrive. As is very much the case in the European launch industry, the European OTV industry will likely face a survival of the fittest period before the decade is out. 

There is also the so-called lunar economy. In 2021, PricewaterhouseCoopers published its "Lunar market assessment: market trends and challenges in the development of a lunar economy." The report claimed that the lunar transportation market could be valued at $751 billion by 2040. At least one European OTV operator is wholly focused on servicing that market.

SmallSpark CEO Joseph Ward told European Spaceflight in December that the company wants to be the “go-to supplier for businesses that want to participate in the lunar economy but don’t want to have to wait for a dedicated lunar launch.”

In addition to SmallSpark, RFA, UARX, Exotrail, and ESA along with ArianeGroup do plan on offering OTV services from LEO to lunar orbit or Earth escape orbits. That is a not insignificant number of operators banking either completely or partially on the fact that the lunar economy will materialize. I do, however, have my doubts. 

It’s exciting, and I want to be excited about it. I just don’t see any intrinsic value in commercial operations on the Moon. There are clear scientific benefits and I think there will be a requirement to maintain a modest presence on or around the Moon to conduct these activities. I just do not see why a commercial company would spend enormous amounts of funding to set up shop on the surface of the Moon. Not in the next two years at least. Then we have the transportation problem. There currently isn’t any means to transport significant quantities of payload to and from the Moon and I don’t think there will be for decades. Starship promises to be that vehicle and New Glenn will likely also be touted as being capable of delivering on that promise. However, I still think these vehicles are unproven entities that don’t have a market to service. As an example, consider Falcon Heavy. The vehicle has been operational since the beginning of 2018 and has flown just five times. How do we get from that to having enough demand for potentially daily Starship missions? 

Conclusion

D-Orbit is delivering on the promise of OTVs and showing the entire market how it’s done. It’s pretty astonishing that the company does not receive more praise within Europe. They are world-beating in their field and have proven the market for new players. Those new players have, as a result, huge shoes to fill and no time to fill them. 

I don’t think there will be space for everyone on this list. Companies that can distinguish themselves and offer real value will thrive. Those that are too late to the starting line and are unable to offer a unique value proposition will simply not make it. Over the next few decades as capacity skyrockets, there may be a need for new players with new capabilities that we can not yet envision. In the short to medium term, though, the market is very well defined and is quickly being well served by a number of operators both on the OTV side and on dedicated missions aboard small launch vehicles.

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Issue 43 poll results

In last week's issue of the newsletter I ran a poll that asked if ESA should make inspector general reports public. I then repeated the question on both LinkedIn and Twitter. Although I did add a link to the context for the question, Twitter and LinkedIn users may or may not have read the full article. This may bias the results slightly, but I think the overall view of the issue is pretty clear.

On the newsletter, a total of 70 people voted with 100% of respondents stating that ESA should make the reports public. On Twitter, 4.7% of the 322 respondents didn't think it was a good idea. Which I was surprised about. I asked for an explanation from the people who had responded "No" but received no answer. Make of that what you will. Finally, LinkedIn had the largest percentage of descent with a total of 8% of the 249 respondents stating that they didn't think it was a good idea. Again, I would love to know the reasoning behind the descent but received no comments with a point of view.

Considering the clear support this proposal received, I am examining ways to bring it up to ESA hierarchy. This is currently proving to be far more challenging than I anticipated with there being very few mechanisms for the average citizen of a member state to have an influence on agency policy. In fact, in response to questions, the ESA media office told me that “there is no mechanism allowing a citizen to put an item on the council agenda.” How is that possible? How am I the first one to ask these questions? I am working on it, though.

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Welcome to the space station - Spanish in-orbit logistics startup UARX has been selected by Thales Alenia Space as a provider for the company's IMAGIN-e (ISS Mounted Accessible Global Imaging Nod-e) payload that will be hosted aboard the International Space Station (ISS). The payload will be comprised of a powerful on-orbit computer, an on-orbit application framework, and high-performance Earth Observation sensors. The mission aims to demonstrate and validate on-orbit computing technologies and potentialities onboard the ISS.

A mysterious US customer - Scottish smallsat component and solutions provider AAC Clyde Space has won a €552k order for reaction wheels that will be used aboard a number of small satellites. According to the company, the order came from "a US blue chip company." The order includes engineering and flight models and qualification testing of the reaction wheels. The company expects to complete delivery during the fourth quarter of 2023.

The first time is always exciting - French satellite propulsion solutions provider ION-X has announced that its tech will be going to space for the first time in 2024. The company's plug-and-play electrospray thruster solution will power an EnduroSat demonstration mission and will be launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9.

A long road ahead - During a panel at the SmallSat Symposium Avio CEO Giulio Ranzo stated that the results of the Vega C failure investigation would be released soon. Although Ranzo declined to share any details, he did confirm that it was a problem with the second stage and that it could result in the earlier return to flight of the original Vega rocket. Although this is speculative, it does appear that Ranzo didn't expect Vega C to return to flight within a few months.

Eureka! - German Wildfire monitoring startup OroraTech announced a technological breakthrough in fire detection and monitoring. The company confirmed that it was now able to detect and send fire notification alarms to customers via a multi-satellite link within just three minutes after one of its satellites had passed the affected area. To achieve this, the company compressed the data and sent it down to Earth via an inter-satellite link thus avoiding the need to overpass a ground station. This significantly reduces the time it takes to notify customers about a new fire. The announcement comes less than three months after the company closed a €15 million series A funding round. Another European space startup kicking ass!

A tall glass of juice, please - ESA Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) interplanetary spacecraft arrived at the launch site in French Guiana safely ahead of its launch. The spacecraft was transported aboard an Antonov Airlines An-124 cargo flight from Toulouse, France, where prime contractor Airbus completed a nearly decade-long process of concept, design, testing, and construction. JUICE will be launched aboard one of the final Ariane 5 flights on a mission to study three of Jupiter's icy moons: Ganymede, Callisto, and Europa. The launch, which is targeted for mid-April, will begin the spacecraft's eight-year journey to Jupiter to begin its mission. The spacecraft represents the most powerful array of scientific payload ever sent to the outer solar system. 2000 people spanning 23 countries, 18 institutions, and 83 companies worked on this amazing piece of engineering! 

Money, money, money - French in-orbit logistics company Exotrail closed a $58M Series B funding round. The round was co-led by Bpifrance, Eurazeo, and CELAD. According to the company, the funds will be used to scale up its spaceware and spacestudio products and introduce its spacetower and spacedrop products. It will also look to expand its presence into the US and Asian markets. 

He’s going to do all the cool computer stuff - Germany launch startup Isar Aerospace announced that it had hired Alexander Oelling as its Chief Digital Officer. Oelling previously held the same position at the urban air mobility company Volocopter. According to Isar, Oelling will "promote future-proof digital solutions along Isar Aerospace's vertically integrated value chain." He will also "ensure the digitalization of all processes and operations in the company and shape the IT-architecture." I am really not sure what to make of all that. It's a lot of technical jargon and not a hell of a lot of substance.