Is the Esrange orbital launch facility a bad investment?
Kind of but that's okay.
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Is the Esrange orbital launch facility a bad investment?
During the inauguration of the new orbital launch facility at Esrange in Sweden, dignitaries from the Swedish government, the EU Commission, and ESA talked breathlessly about the benefits the new facility would bring to Europe.
"Esrange is a critical asset that will strengthen Europe’s capability to launch satellites and improve our space competitiveness," said ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen was equally as emphatic about the importance of the new facility stating, "this spaceport offers an independent European gateway to space. It is exactly the infrastructure we need, not only to continue to innovate but also to further explore the final frontier."
However, it was another statement that had the most impact on me personally. German launch startup Isar Aerospace was one of only two commercial launch companies invited to the event, the other being ArianeGroup. Isar has testing facilities at Esrange, but it has no plans to launch from the facility. To ensure that the company's involvement in the inauguration of the facility was in no way misconstrued, Isar published a press release stating bluntly that the startup "is currently not considering orbital launches" from Esrange. And true enough, not only will Isar not be launching orbital missions from the facility but there is currently not a single launch operator that has publicly shown interest in launching from Esrange.
In contrast, all other mainland European launch facility projects managed to secure an anchor customer before construction began. Andoya in Norway has Isar, Cornwall has Virgin Orbit, Sutherland has Orbex, and SaxaVord has Rocket Factory Augsburg, ABL Space Systems, Latitude, Skyrora, and Astra Space.
ArianeGroup will definitely be used as an argument that Esrange does in fact have an anchor customer. However, the company only plans to conduct initial testing of its Themis reusable booster demonstrator at the facility, and all the tests will involve fairly low-altitude flights. Once those initial flights have been completed, testing will be shifted to Guiana Space Centre. Themis may open a door for MaiaSpace to utilize the facility, but all indications are that the ArianeGroup subsidiary will also utilize the Guiana Space Centre for testing and operational flights.
So why when there seems to be no demand for it was the orbital launch facility at Esrange built?
Timeline
In September 2017, The Swedish Government asked the Swedish National Space Agency, in cooperation with the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC), a state-owned space company that owns and operates the Esrange Space Center, to investigate the commercial viability of launching small satellites from Esrange. However, the first investigations into the viability of launching orbital missions from Esrange were conducted as far back as 1984. It was not until the explosion of small commercial launch vehicle operators, however, that the proposal became viable.
In January 2018, the SSC and the Swedish National Space Agency presented a detailed report to the government on a project they called SmallSat Express. According to a press release published by SSC at the time, the new service would "provide a since long asked for and recommend new capability to Esrange."
In July 2018, The Swedish government invested 60 million Swedish krona (approximately €5.3 million) into testing facilities at Esrange. SSC pledged to kick in 20 million Swedish krona of its own money for the development of the new infrastructure.
In October 2020, the Swedish government announced its decision to go ahead with establishing the capability to launch small satellites from Esrange. At the time, SSC was targeting 2022 for a maiden orbital launch. In a press release, Swedish Space Minister Matilda Ernkrans explained the decision stating that Sweden "will be one of the very few countries with the capability to launch small satellites."
The decision to build the facility did, however, take a much broader look at the potential benefits. With the announcement of its decision, the government released a report detailing the input regarding the construction of orbital launch capabilities from a number of key players including the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Security Service, and the Swedish Defence Research Agency. The report paints a fairly bleak outlook of the state of the world, especially when you consider that the report was written in 2020 two years before Russian invaded Ukraine.
“The previously relatively optimistic world picture with globalization trade patterns, downplaying of great power conflicts and increased cooperation has been broken. The development is moving towards more and more great power competition and a weakening of multinational arrangements.”
The report goes on to state that the “expanded capacity at Esrange with satellite launch can give rise to several different scenarios based on a defense, foreign and security policy perspective. It provides a potentially stronger position from which Sweden can influence international politics.”
The report does, however, outline the potential risk that comes with this added benefit. “An expanded capability at Esrange also means that Sweden will become a heavier space nation, and the development at Esrange cannot be seen exclusively from the perspective of possibilities. It will be of interest to both nearby and more distant powers to follow how the infrastructure is used, which countries get access to the base to launch launchers, and which satellites are launched.”
Interestingly, despite supporting the proposal for its national security benefits, the Swedish Armed Forced stated that it did not have allocated funds to support the project. Despite the funding not coming from the country’s defense budget, Sweden did find 90 million krona (approximately €7.9 million) over three years for the construction of the new facility.
Just as construction on the new facility was about to begin in 2022, the global pandemic shut down much of the operations at Esrange. Additionally, a fire at the Esrange suborbital launch facility in 2021 also delayed the development of the new orbital launch facility. According to the company’s 2021 financial statement, repairs related to the fire cost SSC 4 million Swedish krona (approximately €350k) Despite these delays, SSC managed to complete the construction of the new facility in late 2022 with the inauguration occurring just last week.
Current operations
Esrange is no stranger to launch operations. The facility has hosted suborbital rocket launches since it was built by the European Space Research Organisation (a precursor to ESA) in the 1960s.
Since 2014, Esrange has hosted 41 suborbital rocket launches averaging 4.6 launches a year. However, these statistics are somewhat misleading as the facility's operations were hampered in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic and the fire. During these two years, the facility averaged just 2.5 flights a year. In addition to suborbital rocket launches, the facility also hosts the launch of high-altitude balloons. A total of 15 balloon launches have been conducted at Esrange since 2014.
In 2023, the facility is expected to host as many as 11 suborbital flights, including the N2ORTH rocket which is being developed to break the altitude record for student-built hybrid rockets. The facility's suborbital launch programme currently has flights penciled in as far forward as 2030 showing a solid demand for the facility throughout the decade.
Launch is, however, only one small element of SSC’s operations both at Esrange and around the globe. The company offers extensive testing facilities for both launch and satellite technology. SSC has also built and manages one of the most extensive ground station networks in the world with ten ground stations strategically located for optimal coverage which work in conjunction with eight supplementary partner stations. This allows the company to manage operations of missions from low Earth orbit to lunar orbit.
Conclusion
A recurring theme in all the announcements, reports, and studies around the construction of the Esrange orbital launch facility has been how much interest SSC had from its customers. Even now that the interest has failed to materialize in the form of contracts, the company continues to push the narrative.
In a press release from SSC regarding the inauguration of the new facility, the company stated that it was “in advanced discussions with several potential rocket partners for future orbital launches from Spaceport Esrange.” The company even went so far as to say that it was targeting a satellite launch from the facility “by the turn of the year 2023/24.”
Only four European companies are expected to attempt maiden flights by the beginning of 2024, not including ArianeGroup of course. Skyrora and Rocket Factory Augsburg have committed to SaxaVord, Orbex is building its own launch facility at Sutherland and Isar Aerospace has committed to Andoya. So, where is this launch operator from? The US? It’s unlikely considering the regulatory hurdles that would need to be overcome to enable it. Japan? Maybe but as far as I know there aren’t any commercial operators looking to debut in that timeframe and I question the regulatory and logistical ease of a Japanese launch startup partnering with Esrange. The same goes for launch startups from India and Australia.
As more European launch startups come to the market and the industry begins to mature there may be parties interested in Esrange. However, I don’t see how a maiden orbital flight from the facility is possible before 2024 or even 2025. And even then, will the facility really be the most attractive option with Andoya and SaxaVord nearing completion and work well underway on the commercial launch facility at the Guiana Space Centre? Due to the fact that missions will need to pass over Norwegian airspace, no maiden flights are likely to occur at Esrange. According to ESA DG Josef Aschbacher, any rocket launched from Esrange will first need to be flown from elsewhere to prove to its neighboring countries that it works and that it is safe.
Esrange may very well be utilized in the future. I don’t see any clear path to regular use but with the introduction of significant launch capacity to Europe over the next five to ten years, it’s possible. So, does that mean SSC and the Swedish government made a bad investment? Well, I don’t think so, no.
Esrange is billing itself as a one-stop-shop for all things space with services covering everything from testing and balloon launches to orbital launch capabilities. If the site can pay for itself with one or two flights a year, I do think there is inherent value in its operation for both SSC and the country as a whole. However, I’m not sure if I agree that it has the political advantages that Sweden first envisioned, especially when you consider the country’s imminent entry into NATO.
#ICYMI - I posted an interview with Orbex CEO Chris Larmour on YouTube last week. We talked about the company's achievements in 2022 and its future. We also talked about Orbex’s reusability efforts and the state of the European launch market.
Shotgun! - German launch startup Rocket Factory Augsburg secured exclusive access to Launch Pad Fredo at the SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland. The multi-year partnership included a “double-digit million pound investment” in SaxaVord by RFA. The company will utilize the pad to launch its RFA ONE launch vehicle to polar and sun-synchronous orbits. SaxaVord will also be the site of the maiden flight of the RFA ONE which is currently expected to take place by the end of 2023.
Land Ho! - The ArianeGroup Ariane 6 transport vessel Canopée has completed its very first transatlantic crossing reaching Pariacabo harbor in French Guiana. The crossing is part of a series of sea trials to qualify harbor infrastructure and Canopée’s future shipping route. Canopée will be fitted with four large rigid sails by the summer. Its hybrid propulsion uses a combination of sails and traditional engines to halve the cost of shipping Ariane parts across the Atlantic.
Still adjusting to the weather - Virgin Orbit's Start Me Up mission ended in failure after an anomaly caused the premature shutdown of the first burn of the second stage. The flight was supposed to be the first orbital rocket launch from the UK with the carrier aircraft taking off from Spaceport Cornwall. Virgin Orbit has begun an internal investigation into the root cause of the failure.
The three musketeers of collision avoidance - European startups Neuraspace, Ienai Space, and EnduroSat announced their intention to collaborate on a demonstration of an AI-based in-orbit collision avoidance system. Neuraspace will provide the space traffic management data, Ienai Space the electric thrusters, and EnduroSat the satellite. The mission will be launched in 2023. It will serve as a precursor for an end-to-end space traffic management solution for increased spacecraft safety.
Wen hop? - At the inauguration of the new Esrange orbital launch facility in Sweden, ArianeGroup displayed what looked to be a mockup of its Themis reusable booster demonstrator. On a sign attached to the booster, ArianeGroup confirmed that the first Themis hop from Esrange would not take place until 2024. Interestingly, a press release from the Swedish Space Corporation stated that testing for Themis would begin in 2023. This could potentially be a hold-down test, but there does not seem to be any mention of that in the testing schedule.
What’s a guy gotta do to get a loan? - The European Investment Bank signed a seven-year €300 million loan with SES. The loan will be utilized to build three fully digital satellites, delivering high-speed broadband and reliable IP-based services to Western Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. The satellites will be built by Thales Alenia Space.
I’m not crying, you’re crying! - The 118th and final payload fairing for Ariane 5 arrived safely in Kourou. The payload fairing built by Beyond Gravity will be utilized aboard the final Ariane 5 flight that will carry ESA's Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) mission.