Funding ArianeGroup’s Susie concept would be a mistake
Funding ArianeGroup’s Susie concept would be a mistake
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Funding ArianeGroup’s Susie concept would be a mistake
During the International Astronautical Congress in September 2022, ArianeGroup announced Susie (Smart Upper Stage for Innovative Exploration) concept. I’ve seen some tortured acronyms in my day, but I am not sure why they tried so hard to make “Susie” work, especially considering ArianeGroup’s affinity to Greek mythology.
Susie is envisioned as a multirole spacecraft capable of cargo, crew, and service missions. The spacecraft, which ArianeGroup refers to as a reusable upper stage, would be launched aboard an Ariane 64 initially but would be compatible with future European launch vehicles. One of the spacecraft’s most notable feature are control surfaces that enable it to be propulsively recovered.
As a fan of exciting developments in spaceflight and specifically European spaceflight, I was excited about the concept when it was first announced. However, the more I thought about it the more I realized how cynical the proposal had been and how little about it made sense.
An interesting note before I continue. At the IAF conference, the individual that presented Susie was Marco Prampolini Systems Architect for Advanced Concepts at ArianeGroup. Prampolini has many patents to his name including one for a winged reusable rocket stage that would fly itself back to Earth touching down on a traditional runway under the power of a subsonic flight propulsion motor. He filed this patent during his time. This concept would later be announced by Airbus as its Adeline project. It would appear that Prampolini has brought his flare for designing outrageous solutions to Susie, although I am not certain how pivotal a role he played in its proposal.
The numbers don’t add up
One of the most striking figures attached to the Susie concept is its 25-tons (approximately 22,6 tonness) wet mass. According to both the Arianespace and ArianeGroup websites, Ariane 64 is capable of delivering 20 tonnes to low Earth orbit. Now, since a Susie flight configuration would do away with the fairing and payload adaptor, it might get to the 22,6-tonne mark. However, that leaves absolutely no room for bloat.
This approach shows how little was learned from the ill-fated Hermes project. The vehicle was designed to make use of every kilogram of capacity it could get from Ariane 5. However, once development work began the spacecraft’s mass slowly started to creep upward until it had completely outgrown its launch vehicle. The final Hermes design, which was proposed prior to the project’s cancellation, would have been compatible with Ariane 5 however, that required some pretty aggressive cuts to the vehicle’s capabilities. Why repeat this mistake? Why not design well within the payload capacity budget? The answer is propulsive recovery.
ArianeGroup was so desperate to ensure the Susie concept stood out that it proposed recovering the spacecraft propulsively. To enable this kind of recovery, the spacecraft would be required to launch with a large reserve of propellant that would not be necessary if it was being recovered with a parachute system. In a vehicle like the SpaceX Starship upper stage, this fuel spend can be mitigated by its huge capacity. However, in a vehicle as small as Susie, this tradeoff becomes more than a little hard to swallow. This is what forces Susie’s wet mass up to a point where Ariane 6 is only barely able of carrying it to low Earth orbit.
The propulsive recovery system also adds so much complexity to the design and for what? Precise touchdowns on Earth? Is that really a capability that is so vitally important that the whole vehicle needs to be compromised to ensure it is included? I don’t think so. It would also likely add years of development and millions in funding which would further increase the chance of it never making it to the launchpad like so many European crewed programmes before it. Again, have we learned nothing from the past? The US Space Shuttle was the product of this same kind of extreme compromise which, in the end, ensured that it was not capable of delivering on its most important capabilities.
A little context in terms of mass: The SpaceX Dragon is a fairly capable spacecraft that can be configured as a cargo or crew vehicle and is capable of delivering approximately 3,300 kilograms to low Earth orbit in its cargo configuration. In its crew configuration, which is when it's at its heaviest, Dragon weighs a little over 12,000 kilograms. China's Shenzhou crew vehicle comes in at around 7,800 kilograms and Soyuz at just over 7,000 kilograms.
Conclusion
Since announcing Susie in September 2022, ArianeGroup has tweeted about the programme 37 times (this includes tweets, retweets, and replies). According to SocialBlade, the account tweets on average 185 times per month for a total of approximately 830 tweets over the period in question. That means that 4.4% of every tweet from the official ArianeGroup account over the last four and half months has been about Susie. All that for a concept that ArianeGroup has made no indication that it will pursue independently, no indication that ESA has any interest in it, and during a time when the maiden Ariane 6 flight has been delayed for another year putting even more pressure on a European launch capability that is on the verge of collapse. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
What frustrates me most about this concept is that ArianeGroup could have done so much better. The company could have put its hand up to ensure Europe’s independent access to space by initializing and pursuing a feasible spacecraft project independently. The company likely has the funds and with its parent companies Airbus and Safran in its corner, it definitely has the expertise. This approach would have ensured a lean commercial-driven project that may very likely have produced a vehicle capable of entering service before the end of the decade. Instead, ArianeGroup reverted to all of its worst instincts proposing a concept that has little chance of ever making it to the launchpad and then calling on public entities to fund its vanity project.
What’s more frustrating is that during its announcement in September last year, one of the first slides of the presentation made it appear that the proposal was part of ESA's New European Space Transporation Solutions (NESTS) initiative. The speaker never specifically states that the concept is part of the initiative leaving the implication to be made by the viewer. It’s such a cynical way to bring legitimacy to the project knowing that ESA is unlikely to publically call out its primary launch vehicle development partner.
Despite my aversion to Susie, the general sentiment towards the project from the community at large seems to be, for the most part, positive. I ran a pair of very unscientific polls aimed at examining the attitudes of my Twitter followers and the European Spaceflight LinkedIn account’s followers towards Susie. In the Twitter poll, 289 individuals voted with 59% of that audience expressing a positive outlook on the project and only 22% a negative one. On LinkedIn, 63% of the 154 people who voted did so favourably and only 14% saw the project in a negative light. It should, however, be noted that the majority of the individual who chose to add a comment to the poll on Twitter provided a caveat to their response admitting that they thought the project was likely overly ambitious. There was also a larger amount of disparaging comments than there were comments from people who were excited about it - there is, however, obvious bias there. I think the European public is so eager for a European crewed spacecraft initiative that they are jumping at any concept that promises the capability.
The way forward
At the 2022 ESA ministerial council meeting member states voted to provide €2.8 billion for the agency's space transportation budget. Although much of this will be allocated to current programmes including Ariane 6, Vega C, and Space Rider, a portion has been allocated to "preparatory activities for the advent of human space transportation capabilities."
ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher began this process in early 2022 announcing that he would introduce a high-level advisory group on human space exploration with input from a wide range of viewpoints. This will lay the foundation for what will be the agency’s human spaceflight strategy for what could be the agency’s most opportune moment to seize upon public and political support to deliver a crewed launch capability. My hope is that this group is realistic in its ambitions and plots a course with clear goals and a tight deadline. Europe has everything it needs to deliver on crewed launch and to paraphrase former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine, I’m excited for a day when I can sit my daughter down in front of the TV and show her European astronauts launching aboard European-made rockets from European soil.
A penny for my thoughts - In case you missed it, last week I published the first paid-subscribers-only issue of the newsletter. The issue looks at a mysterious ESA study performed by Beyond Gravity that examined the feasibility of reusable payload fairings for European launch vehicles. If you're interested, the paid issues are published once a month. The subscription costs €5 a month or €50 a year.
European Space Agency
Since there has been so much news from the agency this week, ESA gets its own section in this issue.
Newspace, meet oldspace - ESA, the European Commission, and the EU Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) signed a coordination agreement aimed at supporting space-based commercialization initiatives. According to a joint statement, the trio is aware of the difficulties that European newspace companies face in making strides into new markets due to limited access to growth capital and loans. This initiative aims to improve the conditions for private investors and businesses.
Mirror, mirror on the wall - ESA and the European Commission have signed a contribution agreement to build a Copernicus mirror site in the Philippines – the first of its kind in Southeast Asia. The new CopPhil initiative will enhance the response capability and resilience of the Philippines to natural and human-made disasters through the strategic use of space data. The agreement came with €7.3 million in funding.
A quantum leap - ESA signed a contract with Thales Alenia Space as the lead of the agency's TeQuantS project which is aimed at developing quantum space-to-Earth communications technologies. The contract was awarded under the agency's Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems initiative and is supported by CNES and the Austrian space agency ALR.
I can see my house from here… and the ants on my front lawn - ESA announced the launch of a new Galileo service that will deliver horizontal accuracy down to 20 cm and vertical accuracy of 40 cm. The High Accuracy Services are enabled through an additional level of real-time positioning corrections which are delivered through a new data stream within the existing Galileo signal. The new service is freely available worldwide to anyone with a suitably equipped receiver.
You can sell merchandise. You can sell merchandise. YOU CAN ALL SEE MERCHANDISE - ESA launched a program to make it easier for individuals or companies to produce merchandise that features ESA trademarks including the agency's logo. According to ESA director general Josef Aschbacher, the initiative is aimed at raising "awareness and general visibility in Europe about ESA and the great space work" it does. Aschbacher went on to state that his "personal hope is that this will lead to seeing more Europeans wearing a t-shirt from their own space agency." The initiative is, however, not without restrictions. Once a request is approved, the license holder will be able to produce the agreed-upon merchandise for a during of two years. Designs will need to adhere to the agency's strict graphical rules and corporate identity. The agency also requests, to the maximum extent possible, that all materials are manufactured and distributed in such a way as to reduce their impact on the environment.
It’s European space but not really European or space - European exchange Euronext launch its Helios Space Index which is billed as the "first European Space index to measure the stock market performance of European space companies." In creating the index, Euronext collaborated with ESA, the European Commission, and Promus Ventures. Questions have, however, already been asked about how well-represented European space companies actually are in the index. Pierre Lionnet, self-described space economist and research and managing director at Eurospace, estimates that less than 3% of the stocks included in the Helios Space index are actually driven by space activity. Lionnet found that approximately half of the companies in the index have a space business representing less than 1% of their total business.
The rest of the news
Spain puts its money where its mouth is - The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation has made €45 million available for the development of an innovative solution for a small satellite launcher. The two most likely companies to receive the funding are PLD Space and Pangea Aerospace. PLD Space is further along in the development of its Miura 5 launcher but I would argue that the Pangea Aerospace aerospike is the more innovative solution. The bidding process is scheduled to end in early June.
One nail at a time, please - Danish satellite manufacturer GomSpace appears to be in trouble. In early January 2023, reports began to surface of mass layoffs from the company resulting in a 30% reduction of the approximately 170-person workforce. Days later on January 18, the company announced that its Chairman of the Board of Directors Jens Maaløe, and CEO Niels Buus had both resigned. The next day GomSpace published a press release stating that after a prolonged suspension of a project the company had been working on with ESA to adapt and improve smallsat systems for science missions in deep space had been canceled. The decision resulted in a reduction of 22MSEK (approximately €1.96 million) in the GomSpace backlog.
Coming in for landing - The EU Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) awarded a four-year €100 million contract to Thales Alenia Space to provide maintenance and other support services for EGNOS (European Geostationary Navigation Overlay System) V2. The EGNOS system enhances the accuracy, reliability, and integrity of positioning signals by improving the performance of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as GPS and, in the future, Galileo. EGNOS’s “Safety of Life” service is used in aviation for landings, enabling precision approaches at European airports without requiring ground guidance systems.
Throwing money at it - The UK Space Agency announced the allocation of £50 million in funding for the country's satellite communications industry. The funding is part of the ESA Advanced Research in Telecommunications Services (ARTES) programme. It will be made available for a wide range of projects, such as developing new satellite constellations, the ground systems needed to access them, or whole end-to-end systems delivering new services to customers.
We know already - After CNES chairman and CEO Philippe Baptiste leaked the fact that ArianeGroup had successfully completed a second Ariane 6 upper stage hot fire test, the company officially announced the successful test. The only footage of the test that was shared was taken by a drone high above the test stand. I do wish we'd be able to see some close-up shots.
We have fire! - French launch startup Latitude announced the first successful hot fire test campaign of its Navier rocket engine. I managed to get a few minutes with CEO Stanislas Maximin to hear all about the amazing story behind the test campaign. The campaign saw a number of hot fire tests including one that last more than 30 seconds. The Navier engine utilized for the test is still a prototype with testing of the flight version still to come.
A German nabs an American - German launch startup Isar Aerospace signed a launch contract with its first US-based customer Spaceflight Inc. The agreement is for a dedicated launch aboard an Isar Spectrum flight to a sun-synchronous orbit that will be launched in 2026 from Andøya in Norway. It also includes a provision for a second dedicated flight that would be launched in 2025.
Welcome to my new place - UK-based satellite component manufacturer Oxford Space Systems has opened a new manufacturing facility in Abingdon, Oxfordshire in the UK. The new facility will be utilized to scale up internal manufacturing capability of key materials and components of the company's deployable antennas. This will accelerate the company’s industrialisation plan to deliver batches of antennas for satellite constellation programmes.
War, huh, yeah! What is it good for? - Airbus Defence signed a contract with the Belgian Ministry of Defense to provide tactical satellite communications services for a 15-year period. The country's armed forces will utilize channels of Airbus UHF (Ultra High Frequency) military communications hosted payloads aboard commercial Airbus-built telecommunications satellites.