Europe unanimously adopts secure comms initiative
Is it worth the €2.4 billion price tag?
Issue 45. Subscribers 1,537.
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Europe unanimously adopts secure comms initiative
Last week the EU parliament all but unanimously adopted the IRIS2 (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite) initiative that will see the development and deployment of a secure European communications constellation. The project received 603 votes in favor and just six against with 39 abstentions.
There are two elements of this to be concerned about. The first is that the war in Ukraine and the country's reliance on the SpaceX Starlink network has spooked European governments who have nothing to match that capability. The second is the fact that Earth orbits and the frequencies we use to communicate to and from those orbits are limited and are on pace to become an endangered resource far sooner than could have been envisioned ten or even five years ago. Either of these pressure points alone would be reason enough to be concerned about any decisions made at their height and both in combination is just a recipe for bad decisions. I also find the almost total lack of descent in the voting concerning as there are few if any topics that could be counted on to receive more unanimous support than has been shown for IRIS2.
With all this in mind, I decided to look into the basis for the decision and if my concerns were founded or if I was being overly cautious with billions in tax euros.
Introduction
I think it's important to begin at the same point as the European Parliament. Today, all sovereign EU satellite communication capacities for governmental services rely on a limited number of geostationary satellites. This has several issues, including the fact that these satellites are controlled by a handful of nations as national assets, they are largely utilized for military purposes, and the altitude makes low-latency communication difficult. Broader political outlooks and the Ukraine war in particular have prompted many to reexamine the importance of sovereign capabilities with communications being one of the more important of those capabilities.
In terms of the solution proposed, it's not easily understood from the available literature. From what I could gather, a public/private funding model would be utilized to develop and launch up to 170 low Earth orbit satellites between 2025 and 2027. I have seen reports that claim the constellation will be made up of several hundred satellites. I don’t know where these figures have been drawn from. The 170-satellite figure was sourced from a 12-page briefing (I have highlighted elements that I found interesting for your convenience) published by the EU Parliament outlining the project and its particulars just prior to the 14 February decision to green-light the project. It could be that this represents the core functionality of the constellation to service governmental and institutional users. Additional capacity for commercial use will likely require a larger constellation.
The LEO satellites would supplement the assets already in geostationary orbit creating a multi-orbit infrastructure. I haven’t seen any indication that there will be a medium Earth component, but that may be an addition in the future. There is also a ground component. Assets for the ground component would be located largely within the borders of the EU, but there are provisions for facilities to be located outside its borders. A “best-effort obligation” has been outlined with the goal of achieving “geographical balance” in determining the location of the facilities that will comprise the ground infrastructure.
The project’s primary objectives have been split into five main areas:
Improving the resilience of EU communication services by developing and operating a multi-orbital connectivity infrastructure.
Contributing to cyber resilience and operational cybersecurity, including by integrating the EuroQCI's space and ground segments.
Improving the EU space programme's other capabilities and services.
Encouraging the deployment of innovative technologies by leveraging the 'new space' industry.
Ensuring high-speed broadband and seamless connectivity throughout the EU, removing communication dead zones, and enabling connectivity over geographical areas of strategic interest.
The EU Parliament has allocated a €2.4 billion budget for the project. A projected timeline expects initial service to begin in 2025 with full service commencing in 2027. This timetable appears to be a potential pain point.
Launch capacity
According to the aforementioned briefing, France has called for "European launchers and spaceports to be given clear preference" with the launch of all IRIS2 satellites.
Since there are no clear indications of how many satellites will be required to bring the initial services online, it’s hard to speculate how much launch capability will be required. However, I think it’s safe to say that the figure is likely around 20%. That equates to 34 satellites by 2025. Considering that we don't know the exact makeup of the satellites, it is not clear how many flights would be required to launch that initial 34-satellite constellation. However, it would likely require no more than two Ariane 6 flights. And that’s a problem
Ariane 6 is only going to be introduced in late 2023 at the very earliest, with an early 2024 maiden flight being significantly more likely in my opinion. And once operational flights do begin, the vehicle’s launch manifest will be packed for the first two to three years thanks to years of delays and the massive Amazon contract. That second point is important as FCC (United States Federal Communications Commission) rules require Amazon to deploy at least half of its planned satellites by July 2026. As a result, the 18 Ariane 6 Amazon flights will likely be prioritized in the Arianespace launch manifest. It's entirely possible that Arianespace will be able to make space for one or two flights for IRIS2 , but it is far from guaranteed. Then we have to consider the other 80% of the constellation which will need to be deployed by 2027, which will put additional pressure on the Ariane 6 launch manifest. And that's if everything goes right with the introduction of Ariane 6. Any misstep will make the deployment of the constellation aboard the next-gen European launch vehicle virtually impossible.
That leaves two options. The first is to split the satellites up into much smaller missions to be carried to orbit aboard Vega, Vega C, and any vehicle being developed by a European launch startup that can conduct a maiden flight and be vetted and approved to carry these payloads by 2025. Alternatively, the satellites could be launched aboard a certain US launch vehicle, which would, in my opinion, be an unwelcome choice.
The question is, why the hurry? Why does this capability need to be up and running in two years? Launch will definitely be a problem, and then we still have the small aspect of the development and production of the satellites.
Development of IRIS2
Although initial studies for the viability of the constellation have been completed, as far as I can tell, work on the development of the satellites themselves has not yet begun. As a result, the EU will need to select contractors, develop the satellites, test the satellites, and produce the required 20% of the initial 170 satellites within the next two years. It’s worse than that, though. According to this article, contracts for IRIS2 are only expected to be signed in 2024. That means that industry will likely have less than two years to deliver.
A total of three communication megacosntellations are far enough along to garner some context on development timelines. Starlink was first announced in January 2015 with a maiden flight following in May 2019 (unless you count the two Tintin demonstration satellites). OneWeb was first announced in 2012 under the name WorldVu with the first satellites of the constellation only being launched in February 2019. Amazon's Project Kuiper was launched in 2019 with a maiden flight yet to happen. So, the fastest a commercial operator could develop and begin launching a constellation of communications satellites was four years.
SpaceX and Amazon designed, developed, and manufactured their respective satellites themselves. OneWeb partnered with Airbus Defence and Space to do the same. The EU Parliament intends to lean heavily on industry to leverage existing technology already well into development or currently operational to shorten the development timeline. This may very well allow the project to hit the ambitious timeline. I am, however, skeptical.
As far as I can see, a 2025 deadline for the implementation of initial services seems to be all but unachievable. And again, why the hurry? Is there an understanding that the EU will still be able to utilize the system in Ukraine? I’d really like to think that the conflict isn’t going to last another two years, but I don’t think it’s improbable. Or maybe there is a fear that Ukraine is merely the catalyst for a period of conflict between the world’s superpowers that Europe needs to be prepared for? Or maybe it’s a fear that climate change will increase the occurrence of natural disasters or that cyber threats are on the verge of crippling or at least disrupting European ground-based communications systems?
Who is it for?
According to the briefing, IRIS² is "primarily for the EU institutions and Member State governments." There are provisions and considerations for commercial use, but those will, it appears, be driven by private partners. The primary goal of the programme is institutional and governmental use. The hope is that come rural setting, cyber criminal, natural disater, or invasion, the EU will have secure communications.
I think this is the first positive of the project. Comparisons to Starlink worried me. I was afraid that Europe was leaping headfirst into a project to compete with Starlink, which is what many of the headlines have used as clickbait. However, that really doesn’t appear to be the case. The constellation is modest in size and focused in its function. Taxpayers will pay for the element of the constellation that is of absolute necessity, which I do believe uninterruptible secure satellite communications are. Any commercial applications will not be undertaken, it would appear, at the expense of the European taxpayer thanks to the public/private funding model.
Industry will, of course, receive a huge head start for any commercial applications thanks to the core system, but again, I think this is to the benefit of the European taxpayer and not a determinant. This benefit is further extended thanks to a commitment that the EU parliament has made to subcontract no less than “30% of the value of the contracts above €10 million to companies outside the group of the main tenderer, to facilitate cross-border SME (small to medium enterprises) activities in the space ecosystem.” This commitment will ensure that the full €2.4 billion budget is not gobbled up by a handful of industry heavyweights. It will, however, also likely make the project more complex, putting further pressure on the timeline. There is also a commitment to technological sovereignty to ensure the avoidance of excessive reliance on non-EU-based solutions. This is something that Europe has been forced to grapple with following the invasion of Ukraine, which took a heavy toll on the continent’s launch capacity.
Interestingly, the EU Parliament will, for the most part, look to industry for the operations, maintenance, and upgrade of the system. However, all security assets such as the quantum encryption element will remain under EU institutional control. This approach will allow the EU to commit to long-term service contracts that again will strengthen European industry.
Conclusion
I’m not a fan of impulsive decisions. This is especially true when over €2 billion of public money is involved. At first glance, I thought that is what had happened with IRIS2. I am happy to report that, for the most part, I was wrong. The programme fills a vital strategic gap for Europe that will be necessary in far more applications than just in times of war. I also think that the potential of a programme like this to be a catalyst for European industry across a wide range of verticals cannot be ignored. I do think that there should have been a commitment to launch a certain percentage of the constellation with launch startups, but I am hoping that this will nonetheless be the case.
Ariane 6 is, of course, the obvious choice to launch large numbers of the IRIS2 satellites at once. However, committing a percentage of these satellites to launch startups could be transformative to the launch capabilities of Europe. I would also like to see these flights awarded sooner rather than later to bring a degree of stability to a budding industry that is facing a rough road ahead with investors wearier than ever to invest in these higher-risk companies.
Another commitment I would like to see implemented is one of transparency. The truth behind the spending and timelines of so many European space-based endeavors is hidden behind unpublished reports and PR doublespeak. I think IRIS2 could be used as a pilot for a more transparent future with annual progress reports being published detailing each element of the project, which companies contracts have been awarded to, and a detailed budget that would allow spending to be tracked. In saying this, I do, however, admit it's unlikely to occur. I can dream, though.
I am still concerned about the timetable. I do not think that 2025 is a feasible deadline for initial services to become operational. And a 2027 deadline for the entire constellations seems equally unlikely. I don’t see why this timetable couldn’t have taken a more conservative approach. Aim for 2027 for initial services and 2030 for the entire constellation. If we do manage to get into operation one or two years earlier, great. I am just a little tired of seeing projects blow past deadlines with little explanation or accountability.
My last recommendation is to avoid the Starlink and Musk debate. The mention of the pair and Musk in particular is one of the reasons I am so concerned about this decision. The below quote from Christophe Grudler (Mouvement Démocrate, France), rapporteur on the EU secure connectivity programme, shows how the mercurial SpaceX chief has been made a villain in this story, which he may very well be.
“With the war, Ukraine needed satellite telecommunications, but the EU didn’t have something to offer. Ukraine should not have to rely on the whims of Elon Musk to defend their people.”
I just don’t think this kind of rhetoric is necessary or helpful. The IRIS2 constellation promises to be a useful addition to Europe’s strategic toolbox. It has the merits to stand on its own without comparisons or manipulations.
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And we would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids - Spanish launch and nanosatellite manufacturing startup Celestia Aerospace announced that its new nanosatellite facility would be built in Sabadell, Spain. This all comes about a year after the company announced the closure of a staggeringly large €100 million seed round. There is so much about this story that doesn’t make sense. On Friday last week, I took a deep dive into the company and the group that was the sole contributor to that huge seed round. I will not be linking to the primary source for this one.
Is this another metaverse thing? - Finland and Sweden launched what is being referred to as the "largest space project in NATO's history. The initiative aims to streamline data collection from space which will be shared and analyzed among NATO Allies. The Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) initiative will establish a "virtual constellation" called Aquila. The constellation will consist of national and commercial space assets. An initial €16.5 million has been allocated to the initiative.
You should see its heat shield! - The Exploration Company announced that its partner Forgital Group had completed the forging of the heat shield for its second demonstrator, Mission Possible. The heat shield is 2.5 metres in diameter and made out of aluminum. This second demonstrator mission is expected to be the company’s first to fly customer payloads. The 1,600 kg capsule will be deployed into orbit and return to Earth following a controlled re-entry.
Will Vega C remain on the bench? - Italian launch logistics company SAB Launch Services announced that it would be actively exploring the use of the previous version of Vega to fulfill its short-term demand. The announcement comes following a statement from Giulio Ranzo (CEO of Avio) at the SmallSat Symposium. Although Ranzo declined to share any details about the results of the Vega C failure, he did confirm that it was a problem with the second stage and that it could result in the earlier return to flight of the original Vega rocket.
Ouch! - Airbus Defence and Space reported a more than 40% drop in gross profit for 2022. The huge drop was attributed to the loss of two Pleiades Neo satellites in December aboard a Vega C launch vehicle and to delays in the development of the Ariane 6 launch vehicle. Inflation was also identified as a contributor.
Pop goes the carbon fiber reinforced polymer liquid oxygen tank - German launch startup HyImpulse announced that along with its partners Adamant Composites, it had successfully completed a hydrostatic burst test of a groundbreaking linerless carbon fiber reinforced polymer liquid oxygen tank. According to the company, this marks a key milestone in the development of its SL1 launch vehicle proving the tank’s ability to withstand high pressures. The company declined to provide the pressure at which the tank failed when asked. However, the company did state that it "passed the test with flying colours."
Let’s hope they’re better than Starliner’s valves - French launch startup HyPrSpace announced a partnership with EQUIP’AERO for the design and manufacturing of cryogenic valves. The valves will be utilized within the company's hybrid aerospike engines to control the "oxidizer flux that mixes with the fuel grain to create the flame." The engines will power the company's OB-1 and suborbital Baguette One launch vehicles.
Ten startups prepare for bootcamp - Munich-based incubator SpaceFounders has announced its third cohort of space startups. The 10 companies selected are Orbital Matter, GATE Space, Stellar, 3IPK, EnduroSat, Look Up Space, AMPHITRITE, DBSpace S.r.l., GRASP Global - Space Services, and ION-X.
Thailand comes to Italy - Italian in-space logistics company D-Orbit announced the signing of a launch contract with Thai software company Patriot Infovention. The contract will see a D-Orbit ION carrier deploy the company’s LOGSATS 3U CubeSat into orbit in October 2023. The satellite will demonstrate the first Thai space-based IoT communications system in addition to an aviation monitoring system.
Satellites and situational awareness - Bulgarian satellite manufacturer EnduroSat announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with German space situational awareness company Vyoma. According to a statement, Vyoma capabilities will complement EnduroSat's space as a service offering helping to "improve the safety of satellites in orbit."
Another mysterious US customer - Scottish smallsat component and solutions provider AAC Clyde Space has won a $1.6 million order for "products." According to the company, the order came from "a US blue chip company." "The products" are expected to be delivered over a period of 12 months. This is the second mysterious order from "a US blue chip company" the company has announced in as many weeks. It's unclear if this is the same company as last week’s announcement.
Reaching across the Atlantic - ESA and the Mexican space agency (Agencia Espacial Mexicana) signed a cooperation agreement to create a framework for more-intensive cooperation in joint projects in the future. The pair have collaborated on a variety of projects over the last five years and this agreement solidifies that relationship.
Issue 44 poll results
Last week I asked which OTV service would be most lucrative in the future. In the embedded newsletter poll, mission extension received 51% of the 43 votes with last-mile delivery receiving 30%, debris removal 16%, and orbital repositioning just 2%. This quite closely resembles what was outlined in the newsletter, which potentially does hint at some bias. Either that or I am more convincing than I thought.
The 110 votes on Twitter had a similar breakdown to the newsletter. Mission extension was far ahead of the rest with a total of 42.7% of the vote. Last-mile delivery took second with 27.3%, debris removal third with 18.2% and orbital repositioning received 11.8% of the votes, which was significantly higher than the newsletter.
LinkedIn offered an interesting result with mission extension narrowly beating out debris removal and last-mile delivery with 233 votes cast. There was just seven percent between the three options. Orbital repositioning received just 14% of the vote.