Can Europe compete with the Musk Machine?
Issue 5. Subscribers: 206.
After two packed weeks, this one was a little slow. We didn’t get any significant announcements, really. Nonetheless, there are a few news stories to cover from the past week. Enjoy!
Will cost make or break European launch startups?
At a round table discussion on microlaunchers during the DLR Industrial Days in Lampoldshausen, Germany, PLD Space COO Raúl Verdú stated that the company doesn’t “see feasibility in low cost microlaunchers”. This is an interesting statement considering the fact that many European launch startups have touted low cost as being key to their approach.
Rocket Factory Augsburg, for instance, has proposed an extremely ambitious cost of €3 million for the base price of a dedicated RFA One carrying up to 1,350kgs to low Earth orbit. To put that into context, the Rocket Lab Electron is capable of carrying just 300kgs to low Earth orbit at a cost of around $7.5 million (€6.9 million). This is particularly interesting considering that we know from public filings that Electron is currently a loss leader for Rocket Lab, costing them more to build than they’re able to recoup.
So, why the focus on cost? Well, SpaceX is very likely, at least in part, behind this race to the bottom.
In August 2019, SpaceX announced that it would begin launching dedicated rideshare missions at a cost of $1 million to secure a spot for a payload of up to 200kgs. This cost has since risen slightly and is now sitting at $1.1 million.
Now, 200kgs is far lower than the 1,350kgs of a dedicated RFA One launch. This, however, only tells half the story. The fact is, many payloads don’t come close to utilising the full capability of a rocket.
Going back to Rocket Lab, of the 25 Electron missions launched to date, the heaviest payload carried was just 200kgs. And that was an outlier. On average, the rocket carries payloads of just over 100kgs. This is well within the capabilities of a SpaceX rideshare mission.
And yes, the RFA One and Isar Aerospace Spectrum are, on paper, significantly more capable than Electron and thus rideshare missions will likely push down the cost of a 200ish kg payload. Even so, it would be hard to argue that these rockets will be able with to compete with the SpaceX rideshare service on price alone.
In the past, small launchers could rely on their ability to deploy a customer's payload into a precise orbit instead of a standard SpaceX rideshare orbit. However, with orbital transfer vehicles now making their way onto these missions, that advantage is quickly becoming a thing of the past. In fact, French newspace company Exotrail announced just last week that its SpaceVan orbital transfer vehicle would be launched aboard a Falcon 9 rideshare mission in 2023.
This is more an elaborate shower thought than a detailed analysis of the market, but I do think it brings up a valuable insight. European microlaunchers are unlikely to be able to compete with a SpaceX rideshare mission on price and price alone. That means that these companies will have to offer value-added services that will allow them to charge a premium or generate income from complementary services.
Some are already pursuing these services. Rocket Factory Augsburg, for instance, is working on a kick stage that will double as an in-orbit service vehicle. Equipping this stage may result in a performance hit for the rocket. However, as stated before, those topline performance numbers are unlikely to be required for the vast majority of missions. Instead, the company would be utilising the remaining performance for an additional revenue stream by offering on-orbit servicing and debris removal.
The RFA One kick stage is by far and away not the only solution to the problem, though. HyImpulse, for instance, plans to offer missions from a floating launchpad that can be stationed at the customer's convenience. Skyrora is working on its Space Tug that would allow for multiple CubeSats to be deployed into precise orbits. There are also indications that Space Tug could be utilised to offer on-orbit serving and debris removal. Orbex is targeting environmentally conscious customers, stating that its bio-propane fuel “cuts carbon emissions by 90% compared to old-fashioned hydrocarbons.” All of these approaches are attempts to create a service that a customer won’t be able to get from SpaceX or any other launch provider.
Do you agree with this assessment? Or do you think I’m full of shit? Head over to this week’s discussion to have your say. This is a new feature of the newsletter I’m testing out.
News from the week
It’s like cosplay but cooler - ESA astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti completed a dry dress rehearsal with her fellow Crew-4 astronauts at the Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday. The launch is slated for 11:26 CET on Saturday, April 23.
Boom goes the dynamite! - Andøya Space took to Twitter to share footage of controlled explosions in its quarry on Wednesday. The company is utilising the rock from the quarry for filling needed for the construction of launchpad A of the company’s orbital launch facility.
You've been.. Thunderstruck - ESA's first Meteosat third generation weather satellite has been fitted with its Lightning Imager. The imager is so sensitive that it can detect relatively weak lightning events even when there is full daylight. The Lightning Imager was developed by Leonardo in Florence, Italy. Its integration is one of the last major milestones before liftoff at the end of the year.
Not really news, but still - Josef Aschbacher confirmed this week that ESA is working with NASA on The Lunar Surface Agreement that could see European astronauts on the surface of the Moon as early as 2029.
Is that a booster I see? - Technically, this was last week, but the European Space Agency has begun integration of the first Vega-C rocket in Kourou. The P120C solid rocket booster has been transferred to the Vega mobile gantry. Next will come the Zefiro-40 second stage, the Zefiro-9 third stage, the AVUM+ upper stage, and finally, the payload enclosed by that larger set of fairings.
Where in the world is European Spaceflight - Yes, I know it's bad form to make yourself part of the news. Anyways, I launched the European Spaceflight Translation Project this week. The project aims to get my most useful infographics translated into multiple languages to give native speakers the chance to engage more fully with the content. The team of volunteer translators behind the project has been incredible!